Archive for January, 2008

China Climate Chaos

Wednesday, January 30th, 2008

The snow and cold in much of China over the past week has been sporadically in the news. It deserves more attention. Not only because of the dead, 24 on recent count, or the 78 million affected, or the hundreds of thousands stranded in railway stations, but because of what it is a harbringer of: climate chaos.

The Ministry of Civil Affairs estimates the direct economic cost of the weather so far to be $3.2 billion and the number of people affected to be 78 million, including 827,000 emergency evacuees. … the supply of coal for electricity had dropped to 21 million tons, less than half the normal levels at this time of year. As a result, 17 provinces were rationing power by Monday.

NYT

On the main highway between Guangdong, the manufacturing powerhouse of the south, and neighbouring Hunan province, more than 20,000 trucks and other vehicles were stranded, Xinhua said.

Among them was a man taking 10 children by bus to Guangdong to visit their migrant-worker parents.

“Today is our fifth day on the bus,” Tan Wenming told Xinhua. “Every day, we each get two packs of instant noodles to eat.”

Climate Chaos

“Snow in the south of China? Whoever would have imagined that?” said Yang Ailun, climate change campaigner for Greenpeace China.

China has a history of devastating natural disasters but the current harsh winter is the latest example of increasingly extreme weather as climate change progresses.

Average 2006 temperatures in China were the warmest in 55 years, while last year saw some of the worst regional droughts in decades, leaving huge swathes of farmland withered and rivers at record low levels.

China’s vast numbers of poor usually suffer the most from natural disasters, raising the spectre of weather-induced social unrest, Hong Kong professor Harris said.

“The people hit hardest are the poor and powerless. Climate change will just lead to more (social unrest),” he said.

Things to Come

Food or Fuel?

Tuesday, January 29th, 2008

Why Ethanol Production Will Drive World Food Prices Even Higher in 2008

Lester R. Brown

“We are witnessing the beginning of one of the great tragedies of history. The United States, in a misguided effort to reduce its oil insecurity by converting grain into fuel for cars, is generating global food insecurity on a scale never seen before.

The world is facing the most severe food price inflation in history as grain and soybean prices climb to all-time highs. Wheat trading on the Chicago Board of Trade on December 17th breached the $10 per bushel level for the first time ever. In mid-January, corn was trading over $5 per bushel, close to its historic high. And on January 11th, soybeans traded at $13.42 per bushel, the highest price ever recorded. All these prices are double those of a year or two ago.

As a result, prices of food products made directly from these commodities such as bread, pasta, and tortillas, and those made indirectly, such as pork, poultry, beef, milk, and eggs, are everywhere on the rise. In Mexico, corn meal prices are up 60 percent. In Pakistan, flour prices have doubled. China is facing rampant food price inflation, some of the worst in decades.

In industrial countries, the higher processing and marketing share of food costs has softened the blow, but even so, prices of food staples are climbing. By late 2007, the U.S. price of a loaf of whole wheat bread was 12 percent higher than a year earlier, milk was up 29 percent, and eggs were up 36 percent. In Italy, pasta prices were up 20 percent.”


Read the whole thing…

Rough Guide to Climate Change

Tuesday, January 29th, 2008
Rough Guide Climate Change

Jeff Masters at the wunderground likes this book.

If you’re bewildered by the complexity of the climate change/global warming issue, and want a comprehensive, easy-to-understand guide that presents an unbiased view of the important issues, look no further than Robert Henson’s Rough Guide to Climate Change.

Feebates: Bring em On!

Tuesday, January 29th, 2008

“This week, the California Assembly is expected to vote on the California Clean Car Discount Act, which, if passed, would be the nation’s first “feebate” law, imposing charges and granting rebates based on a vehicle’s emission of carbon dioxide and other gases.

One-time registration fees of up to $2,500 would be levied on new gas guzzlers, such as Hummers, Dodge Vipers and Chevy Tahoes. Some cleaner sport utility vehicles, pickups and minivans would be exempt from any charge, while the Toyota Prius, Honda Civic, Nissan Sentra and other fuel-efficient cars would get hefty rebates.

The bill is AB 493 …

Know any CA Assemblypersons! Let ‘em know you support this!

Climate Action Plan

Tuesday, January 29th, 2008

Good for Berkeley. This is the kind of action, citizen powered at local levels, that will get the US back in the league of nations fighting climate extremism…

“Homes and businesses in Berkeley would be required to produce as much energy as they use by 2050 under an ambitious city plan that aims to combat climate change.

The plan released Monday also envisions a city where residents and workers rely on public transit, walking and biking. Cars would run on alternative fuels and electricity. No waste would be sent to landfills. And most of the food eaten in Berkeley would be produced within a few hundred miles.

These measures and goals, which would be realized in stages over the next four decades, are part of the blueprint proposed by city staff members to meet a voter-approved mandate to reduce Berkeley’s greenhouse gases 80 percent by 2050. The measure passed in November 2006 with 81 percent of the vote.

The city’s efforts to meet the mandate reached a milestone Monday when Berkeley officials gathered in front of the city’s solar-powered nature center at the Berkeley Marina and released a 66-page Climate Action Plan, which Mayor Tom Bates called a road map for any community that wants to help avert the potentially devastating consequences of global warming.”

Burress: SFC

The Berkeley Climate Action Plan and Post Carbon Cities look to be a good way to get informed about what municipalities can do without waiting for national mandates.

Green Waste

Saturday, January 26th, 2008

This article looks like it came mostly from LA public relations releases, but no matter. If a good chunk of it is right, it’s good.

Under the massive citywide recycling program - known as the Zero Waste Plan - most of the 3,600 tons of trash picked up daily in Los Angeles will be recycled, reduced to compost or turned into alternative energy by 2030.

The plan’s goal is to stop the piling up of old yogurt cups, coffee grinds and other junk in landfills, where they churn out greenhouse gases.

“We cannot continue doing business as usual,” said Alex Helou, assistant director for the city’s Bureau of Sanitation, under the Department of Public Works. “There’s energy stored in the trash. This is the energy we need to harness.”

Announced Wednesday at a public meeting inside Expo Center, the bureau’s energy goals actually started last year. Still in its planning phase, the program follows environmental plans proposed in the past by city officials.

City Councilman Greig Smith, for example, has a 20-year plan adopted by the city to stop using landfills, transform garbage into electricity and other materials, and help create industries and new jobs to support that growth.

Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa in May proposed cutting 19 million tons of carbon-dioxide emissions in Los Angeles by 2020.

Gold Trash

Organizers Extraordinaire

Saturday, January 26th, 2008

A friend and I drove down to Fresno for two days to pay our respects to one of the grand old men of California organizing. Gilbert Padilla is a spry and dry-witted youngster of 80 who cut his organizing teeth with the CSO (Community Services Organization) in the Central Valley after his stint in the WW II army (along with his 5 brothers.) Unwelcome to many places and jobs on their return Gilbert, along with many others, hispanic and black, became the new ground troops for equality and justice that grew into the civil rights movements of the 60s and beyond. “Give us a class on this” we asked him, using one of his favorite phrases to get people to talk about issues that concern them. He showed us a short video interview he had done with Hector Tarango who initiated the landmark desegregation case, Westminster v. Mendez, in Orange County, 1947. Following an unprecedented voter registration drive organized by Fred Ross and the CSO, Hector and others decided to sue Westminster to provide hispanics with an education equal to that of the anglo children at the school directly adjacent, separated by a wire fence and decades of discrimination. Thurgood Marshall came to visit following the decision and used many of the arguments in his Brown v. The Board of Education.

It was a great classroom for Jim and me to sit with Gilbert and Esther. You can catch up a bit on the CSO Project website and see the same clip of Hector — weeping at his recollection of those battles 60 years ago. A partial transcript is here.

My sense is that we have done a poor job of leaving our histories and memories to those coming along now. The CSO Project is a great addition to the grass roots effort. We need to see more — of draft resisters, anti-war organizers, early women’s groups, premature world worriers….

EPA Do-Nothing

Saturday, January 26th, 2008

“Unlike pollutants covered by other waivers, greenhouse gas emissions harm the environment in California and elsewhere, regardless of where the emissions occur,” he said. “Therefore, this challenge is not exclusive or unique to California.”

Therefore, California may do nothing… Thus sayeth EPA chief, Stephen Johnson, in one more demonstration of the cynical use of states rights practiced by the GOP. Ten people in the room are now or soon will be bitten by the mosquitoes in the room. Mr. Johnson says, no one can scratch until all scratch. No one can swat until all swat.

Friday, he sat before the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, chaired by Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and benefited from some direct speech.

“Your agency’s decision to deny California a waiver just defies logic to me,” said Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn.

“I have never seen such disregard and disrespect by an agency head for Congress and for the committees with the responsibility for oversight of his agency,” Boxer said.

“…shameful, outrageous and irresponsible.” Vermont Gov. Jim Douglas, a Republican, said the ruling infringes on states’ rights and undercuts state efforts to fight climate change.

Coile - SF Chronicle

As inflammatory as the EPA denial of action by California and many other states, was the cover-up and withholding of documents prepared by EPA staff. Johnson’s decision did not follow the recommendations. He did not want to share this with his interrogators. After citing Attorney-Client privilege EPA lawyers partially relented last week and allowed Senate committee staff to review and take notes of the documents, but not make any copies –while watched by EPA staff.

One more point of interest, which neither the SF Chronicle nor the NY Times make mention of but the LA Times highlights —

Shortly before Stephen L. Johnson was sworn in by President Bush as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, he gave the president a towel symbolizing a New Testament passage in which Jesus washes his disciples’ feet. The towel, given to graduates of Johnson’s alma mater, a small evangelical college, symbolizes a life of Christian service.

Like the president, Johnson is a deeply religious man who says he relies on his faith in his work. Johnson prayed and spoke gratefully of early-morning prayer sessions held in his government office in a promotional video filmed there for an offshoot of a worldwide Christian ministry.

What is the remedy for Johnson’s action? The hearing itself can only hear, and holler. As a result of the hearing, however, Senators Boxer and Feinstein and 14 other senators introduced legislation that would override the EPA ruling. Will this be joined hby House action and survive a Bush veto? Hard to know, but at least the fight is joined.

Weather News

Saturday, January 26th, 2008

Curious and curiouser….

“The most bitter cold front to blow over the eastern Mediterranean since 1964 plunged much of the Middle East into a deep freeze.

Sub-freezing temperatures in Baghdad forced Iraqis to huddle around kerosene heaters.”

Arctic Chill in Middle East

“Unseasonable warmth and dampness across Finland during much of January appear to have convinced some brown bears to leave hibernation.”

Finish Warm Spell

“An international satellite network measuring the thickness of the glaciers as they shrink year by year has found that the glaciers have melted so rapidly during the past 10 years that the continent is losing almost as much ice as Greenland…”

Antarctic Glaciers

Coral and Climate

Wednesday, January 23rd, 2008

“Warmer seas and a record hurricane season in 2005 have devastated more than half of the coral reefs in the Caribbean, according to scientists. In a report published yesterday, the World Conservation Union (IUCN) warned that this severe damage to reefs would probably become a regular event given current predictions of rising global temperatures due to climate change.

According to the report, 2005 was the hottest year on average since records began and had the most hurricanes ever recorded in a season.”

Coral Reefs

Nukes and Water

Wednesday, January 23rd, 2008

“Nuclear reactors across the Southeast could be forced to throttle back or temporarily shut down later this year because drought is drying up the rivers and lakes that supply power plants with the awesome amounts of cooling water they need to operate.

Utility officials say such shutdowns probably wouldn’t result in blackouts. But they could lead to shockingly higher electric bills for millions of Southerners, because the region’s utilities could be forced to buy expensive replacement power from other energy companies.”

Southern Drought

Power and Politicking

Wednesday, January 23rd, 2008

I’ve long wanted a year to ruminate and write about my notion that the bottom line for human behavior, to which almost every action can be traced, is power. As soon as a three year old wails “she doesn’t want to be my friend” we are acting out the cellular knowledge that without friends we are alone in the world, and in great danger. Sexual jealousy, high-school cliques, road-rage, consummerism, on and on, are related at not too many degrees of separation to the need to be part of groups and within the groups to attain high status — to have power. Now Natalie Angier has a short, totally interesting article, in the NY Times Tuesday Science Section about animal behavior and just such behavior built on the same basic drive.

Wherever animals must pool their talents and numbers into cohesive social groups, scientists said, the better to protect against predators, defend or enlarge choice real estate or acquire mates, the stage will be set for the appearance of political skills — the ability to please and placate, manipulate and intimidate, trade favors and scratch backs or, better yet, pluck those backs free of botflies and ticks.

Over time, the demands of a social animal’s social life may come to swamp all other selective pressures in the environment, possibly serving as the dominant spur for the evolution of ever-bigger vote-tracking brains. And though we humans may vaguely disapprove of our political impulses and harbor “Fountainhead” fantasies of pulling free in full glory from the nattering tribe, in fact for us and other highly social species there is no turning back. A lone wolf is a weak wolf, a failure, with no chance it will thrive.


Read On

Complaint of Peace

Monday, January 21st, 2008

I had the pleasure of a several day visit this week of a young friend (that is to say, younger than me). As such friends will do we covered the world of topics and concerns, from love to war, from good wine to battles won. Among other pauses, we made one here with Desiderius Erasmus and his eloquent The Complaint of Peace [1521]

Now, if I, whose name is Peace, am a personage glorified by the united praise of God and man, as the fountain, the parent, the nurse, the patroness, the guardian of every blessing which either heaven or earth can bestow; if without me nothing is flourishing, nothing safe, nothing pure or holy, nothing pleasant to mortals, or grateful to the Supreme Being; if, on the contrary, war is one vast ocean, rushing on mankind, of all the united plagues and pestilences in nature; if, at its deadly approach, every blossom of happiness is instantly blasted, every thing that was improving gradually degenerates and dwindles away to nothing, every thing that was firmly supported totters on its foundation, every thing that was formed for long duration comes to a speedy end, and every thing that was sweet by nature is turned into bitterness; if war is so unhallowed that it becomes the deadliest bane of piety and religion; if there is nothing more calamitous to mortals, and more detestable to heaven, I ask, how in the name of God, can I believe those beings to be rational creatures; how can I believe them to be otherwise than stark mad; who, with such a waste of treasure, with so ardent a zeal, with so great an effort, with so many arts, so much anxiety, and so much danger, endeavour to drive me away from them, and purchase endless misery and mischief at a price so high?

Grand Solar Plan

Sunday, January 20th, 2008

In the January 2008 issue of Scientific American the cover story is “A Grand Plan for Solar Energy.” The authors, with all the numbers in place, project 2050 as the goal posts for a massive conversion drive.

* A massive switch from coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power plants to solar power plants could supply 69 percent of the U.S.’s electricity and 35 percent of its total energy by 2050.
* A vast area of photovoltaic cells would have to be erected in the Southwest. Excess daytime energy would be stored as compressed air in underground caverns to be tapped during nighttime hours.
* Large solar concentrator power plants would be built as well.
* A new direct-current power transmission backbone would deliver solar electricity across the country.
* But $420 billion in subsidies from 2011 to 2050 would be required to fund the infrastructure and make it cost-competitive.

Well worth reading

and the discussion online that follows.

Earth Temperature

Friday, January 18th, 2008

China Drought

Wednesday, January 16th, 2008

Just thought you’d like to know…

The waters of the Yangtze have fallen to their lowest levels since 1866, disrupting drinking supplies, stranding ships and posing a threat to some of the world’s most endangered species.

Asia’s longest river is losing volume as a result of a prolonged dry spell, the state media warned yesterday, predicting hefty economic losses and a possible plague of rats on nearby farmland.

News of the drought - which is likely to worsen pollution in the river - comes amid dire reports about the impact of rapid economic growth on China’s environment.


142 Year Low

Antarctic Ice

Wednesday, January 16th, 2008

Git’jir boots on…

Climatic changes appear to be destabilizing vast ice sheets of western Antarctica that had previously seemed relatively protected from global warming, researchers reported yesterday, raising the prospect of faster sea-level rise than current estimates.

While the overall loss is a tiny fraction of the miles-deep ice that covers much of Antarctica, scientists said the new finding is important because the continent holds about 90 percent of Earth’s ice, and until now, large-scale ice loss there had been limited to the peninsula that juts out toward the tip of South America. In addition, researchers found that the rate of ice loss in the affected areas has accelerated over the past 10 years — as it has on most glaciers and ice sheets around the world.

“Without doubt, Antarctica as a whole is now losing ice yearly, and each year it’s losing more,” said Eric Rignot, lead author of a paper published online in the journal Nature Geoscience.

The Antarctic ice sheet is shrinking despite land temperatures for the continent remaining essentially unchanged, except for the fast-warming peninsula.

The cause, Rignot said, may be changes in the flow of the warmer water of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current that circles much of the continent. Because of changed wind patterns and less-well-understood dynamics of the submerged current, its water is coming closer to land in some sectors and melting the edges of glaciers deep underwater.

Increasing Ice Loss

The Plastic Purge

Thursday, January 10th, 2008

Jeez, if China can do this why can’t California? How about Chinatown, San Francisco? How about the home delivery newspapers?

Declaring war on the “white pollution” choking its cities, farms and waterways, China is banning free plastic shopping bags and calling for a return to the cloth bags of old — steps largely welcomed by merchants and shoppers on Wednesday.

The measure eliminates the flimsiest bags and forces stores to charge for others, making China the latest nation to target plastic bags in a bid to cut waste and conserve resources.


Purging Plastic

Weather and Climate

Tuesday, January 8th, 2008

Now if we could just get the candidates to talk to us about the weather…

Wild spring-like severe weather swept through the Midwestern U.S. last night, unleashing tornadoes, baseball-sized hail, flooding, and extreme wind gusts. Up to 37 tornadoes ripped through Missouri, Oklahoma, Illinois, Arkansas, and Wisconsin. Two people were killed and three critically injured in southern Missouri near the town of Marshfield, northeast of Springfield, when a tornado smashed through a mobile home park. In Wheatland, Wisconsin, in Kenosha County, just north of the Illinois border, a strong or possibly violent tornado damaged or destroyed 55 buildings and injured 13 people. Twelve homes were demolished down to their foundations. The Wheatland tornado was only the second January tornado on record in Wisconsin. The only other one was a long-track F3 in Green and Rock counties on 24 January 1967. A radar animation of the Wheatland tornado is at right, and more detailed imagery and analysis of this tornado are available from the CIMSS Satellite Blog.

Record warm temperatures helped fuel yesterday’s severe weather outbreak. The 63° F reading in Milwaukee was the warmest temperature ever recorded there in the month of January. Many locations in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois posted record highs within three degrees of their warmest-ever January readings. The record warmth will continue to fuel more severe thunderstorms today from northern Louisiana to Ohio, and the Storm Prediction Center has already issued a Tornado Watch for portions of Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Kentucky. Severe thunderstorms have already been reported in Arkansas this morning.

Last night’s severe thunderstorm I observed from my house was the first I’ve ever experienced in my 40 years living in Michigan. One thunderstorm, 100 miles north of where I live, covered the ground up to two inches deep with hail (Midland, Michigan). Michigan has had three consecutive Januarys with record warmth and spring-like thunderstorms. Northern Illinois recorded its first January tornado since 1950 last night, and Wisconsin its second January tornado on record. Is it global warming? Well, one can’t blame a single weather event on climate change. Also, it was eight below zero here just five days ago, so there has been some very normal winter weather this year. Furthermore, the 37 tornadoes reported yesterday don’t come close to the 102 twisters recorded during the huge January 17-22, 1999 tornado outbreak across Arkansas and Tennessee. But the string of unusual January warmth in three straight years, accompanied by severe thunderstorms far to the north, is broadly consistent with what one would expect to see in a warming climate. Expect to see a lot more spring-like weather in January in coming years.

Jeff Masters

Presidential Candidates on GW

Monday, January 7th, 2008
Carbon Coalition

Following my post the other day about the lack of fire from the candidates over Global Warming I got an informative comment from a friend at the Carbon Coalition in New Hampshire. They’ve been doing dogged work to get the issue in front of the public and the candidates. These are the benchmarks the Coalition suggests for the candidates.

1) Legislation for economy-wide emissions reductions
2) Aggressive R&D for low-carbon energy technology
3) Federal planning for climate change impacts and
response
4) Picking the right team to carry the initiative
5) Cooperation with international partners
6) Reallocation of budget priorities
7) Enable/encourage citizens to build efficiency and
conservation in their homes and communities

See how the candidates measure up.

Carbon Coaltion

[thx S Arnold]